Time: 8:00 PM
Venue: Estadio de La Cartuja (Sevilla)
The Estadio de La Cartuja will become the first Spanish venue to host a major international tournament since the 1982 World Cup, as three-time European champions Spain make a seventh successive Euro finals appearance. They are favoured to extend a perfect competitive return here (W2), which includes a 6-0 thrashing of another side currently in FIFA’s top 20 (Germany) only last November.
After netting 12 goals across their final two Euro 2020 qualifiers, ‘La Roja’ certainly have the momentum to claim a third Euro title in four editions. Speaking of dozens, both of Spain’s previous two Euro triumphs this century saw them finish with exactly 12 goals and with the overall top scorer (joint or outright).
Sweden are flying under Janne Andersson, with the Halmstad-born head coach boasting a win rate of 50.91% after a five-game winning run. They finished top in their 2018 World Cup group under him, but wider history is against the ‘Blågult’, who’ve bowed out at the group stage in four of five Euro appearances since their semi-final appearances at Euro ‘92 and the 1994 World Cup.
The Swedes lost 2-1 to Spain in the only prior Euro finals H2H (2008), and coincidentally, it’s that same scoreline by which Sweden have lost both prior Euro battles vs ‘host’ nations. Both losses were also campaign openers, contributing to a combined progression rate of 0% from four World Cup and Euro tournaments to see Sweden lose their opener (1970-2012).
Players to watch: Mikel Oyarzabal rounded off the scoring in Spain’s 3-0 home win vs Sweden during Euro 2020 qualification, while Sweden’s Marcus Berg netted in the 1-1 return H2H – a result both sides may be happy with here, as the last two Euro editions saw the eventual winner draw their opener by that scoreline.
- Spain’s form in last 5 matches: WDWWD.
- Sweden’s form in last 5 matches: WWWWW
PREDICTION: Home/Draw Over 1.5