Time: 8:00 PM
Venue: Parken Stadium (Copenhagen)
Russia took only partial advantage of being at home in their first two Euro 2020 group matches (W1, L1), but a draw here in Copenhagen could be enough to see them qualify via second place. Yet, the visitors have lost four of their previous nine fixtures overall, with three of those losses coming on foreign soil.
With 68.75% (11) of Russia’s 16 ‘goals against’ during those nine fixtures coming before HT, they may want to keep things tight prior to the interval – especially with six of those opposition goals arriving between the 31st minute and HT. On that note, however, eight of Russia’s last nine matches have seen at least one goal either way before the break.
Despite a spirited performance against Belgium, Denmark now face the prospect of Euro 2020 elimination at their very own Parken Stadium, with only a victory here giving them any chance of progression. Worryingly though, the hosts are winless on ‘matchday three’ at their last four major tournaments (D2, L2), while another loss would see them lose every group game at a finals for the first time since Euro 2000.
With the Danes conceding nine of their last ten ‘goals against’ after HT, they may rely on early preservation to survive. They haven’t trailed at HT in 14 consecutive matches (HT: W8, D6), and somewhat echoing that, four of Denmark’s last five ‘matchday three’ group fixtures won/lost at a Euro finals have seen a level HT score.
Players to watch: Aleksey Miranchuk is Russia’s only pre-HT goalscorer at Euro 2020, but four of his last five strikes have come beyond the 55th minute. Denmark’s Yussuf Poulsen opened the scoring inside the first two minutes last time out, but despite that, seven of his last eight competitive goals have arrived in or after the 60th minute.
- Russia’s form in last 5 matches: WLWDL.
- Denmark’s form in last 5 matches: LLWDW
PREDICTION: Draw/Away and Over 1.5