Real Madrid vs. Chelsea

EUROPE: Champions League

Date: Tuesday, 27 April 2021

Kick-off at 21:00 UK/ 21:00 CET

Venue: Alfredo di Stéfano Stadium (Madrid)

Real Madrid are seeking to reach a first UEFA Champions League (UCL) final in three years. They are outright favourites in this tie after four straight clean sheets, and another here would be potentially vital. Yet, although Real have a 62.5% win-rate from their last eight UCL semi-final home legs, they kept a clean sheet in just 50% of those same fixtures.

Further to the Galacticos’ status as favourites to proceed, their success over Liverpool in the previous round means that the club now has a competitive win-rate of 40.48% against English clubs. They’ve also recorded four successive UCL wins in Madrid prior to this clash, all coming after a won first half and one goal in their favour during the 31st-40th minute period.

UCL winners as recently as 2012, Chelsea are aiming for their first top-level European showpiece since that incredible year. Notably, the ‘Blues’ have won the possession metric in every prior UCL victory under Thomas Tuchel, doing so by an average margin of 13.33%.

Those victories form part of a now-bookended run of nine UCL matches without defeat. Seven of those saw at least one team fail to score, and partly due to this, four of the last five wins in that sequence saw Chelsea win the first half 1-0.

Players to watch: Vinícius Júnior recently netted a brace vs Liverpool, and in turn, two of his three UCL goals this term have closed the scoring in wins producing over 3.5 total goals. Amongst the visitors, Olivier Giroud will be eager for a ‘Madrid double’ after scoring the winner in the R16 first leg (68’) – his last three UCL goals have come beyond the hour mark.

Recent Stats:

  • Real Madrid’s form in last 5 matches: DWDDW.
  • Chelsea’s form in last 5 matches: WDWLW.

PREDICTION: Draw/Away