ITALY: Serie A
Date: Wednesday, 12 May 2021
Kick-off at 20:45 UK/ 20:45 CET
Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Meazza (San Siro) (Milan)
Breaking the Juventus stranglehold, Inter Milan secured their 19th Serie A (SA) title and first in 11 years even before securing a 5-1 win over Sampdoria, a victory that marked their 19th SA game unbeaten (W15, D4). After leading at HT in just 37.14% of their SA fixtures this campaign (HT: W13, D16, L6), strong second halves have been Inter’s forte, with 39 of their 53 second-half goals coming past the hour mark – both league highs.
With 14 home league wins in a row, the San Siro has been a fortress for an Inter side that owns the best home record across Europe’s top-five leagues with 2.71 points per game. Whilst scoring a healthy 2.65 league goals per home game has been a boon, they’ve also had the ‘X’ factor defensively, conceding less than 1.5 goals in their last nine home matches.
After exiting the Europa League, Roma took a big step towards qualifying for next season’s edition with a convincing 5-0 win over Crotone. This snapped a goal-shy four-game winless run in SA (D1, L3), as Roma averaged just 0.88 goals per game in the eight league games preceding the Crotone fixture.
‘I Giallorossi’ have struggled on their league travels with no wins in their last five (D1, L4). Interestingly, they’ve conceded nine of their last 12 away SA goals in the second half, while eight of their nine away defeats have been by a 2+ goal margin. They are unbeaten at Inter in three games however (D3), with each of the last six at any venue actually ending in a draw.
Players to watch: Inter’s Lautaro Martínez has scored 75% of his league goals in the second half this season, and he’s never been on the losing side when scoring (W11, D2). With the tied most SA assists this season (ten), Roma have only lost once when Henrikh Mkhitaryan has scored or assisted (W10, D2, L1).
Inter’s form in last 5 matches: WWWDD.
AS Roma’s form in last 5 matches: WWLLL.
PREDICTION: Draw/Away and Under 4.5