Date: Monday, 5 April 2021
Kick-off at 20:00 UK/ 21:00 CET
Venue: Camp Nou, Barcelona
Second-placed Barcelona can see the now-quivering leaders Atlético Madrid in their sights, having won 20 (D5, L5) of their last 30 La Liga (LL) games. A 55% majority (11) of the wins in that sequence saw Barcelona beat the -2 handicap. Additionally, the ‘Blaugranes’ won both individual halves in eight (72.73%) of those 11 emphatic 3+ goal victories.
Currently boasting a win rate as LL home favourites that is now down just 19.92% from last season, Barcelona have gone 11 home league games without defeat (W8, D3). They’ve usually wasted no time in asserting their consistent ways at Camp Nou, leading precisely 1-0 at the 30th minute mark five times across those wins.
Though stuck in the bottom five with just ten LL rounds remaining, Valladolid are unbeaten in four matches (W1, D3) since losing 1-0 to top-three Real Madrid in February. Yet, with both score draws in that sequence seeing Valladolid concede in the fourth minute of second-half stoppage time, they likely lack the composure necessary to bookend a winless LL run here since the start of 1998/99 (D3, L10).
With the ‘Pucela’ conceding a second-half handicap in eight of those ten losses above, their second-half away form alone also takes the spotlight. Of 11 LL away games to see Valladolid level or behind at HT this term, only one has seen them improve upon the HT situation by FT.
Players to watch: Barcelona rising star Sergiño Dest struck twice vs Sociedad before the international break (W 6-1), with his very first LL goal (for 2-0) ultimately proving decisive. The same ‘decisive’ trait applies to Valladolid striker Shon Weissman’s last goal, which was the fourth of his five this season to come during a match with over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
- Barcelona’s form in last 5 matches: DLDWW.
- Valladolid’s form in last 5 matches: WLLWL.
PREDICTION: Home and Over 1.5