AS Roma vs. Atalanta

ITALY: Serie A

Date: Thursday, 22 April 2021

Kick-off at 18:30 UK/ 18:30 CET

Stadio Olimpico (Rome)

Despite a UEFA Europa League semi-final to look forward to, only one win across five Serie A (SA) games (W1, D1, L3) has left Roma gasping in the top-six race. That poor run notwithstanding, Roma are a strong first-half side (HT: W17, D8, L6) with only AC Milan winning more ‘points’ come the HT whistle this season.

Before this round, only Inter have lost fewer SA home games than Roma (two) this campaign, although worryingly, both have come in their last four such matches here (W2, L2). With the HT result duplicated at FT in each of Roma’s last six SA home games (W4, L2), and in nine of their last 12 SA home H2Hs, this game could well be decided come the break.

Boosting that possibility, 11 of Atalanta’s 15 SA away games this season also saw the same HT/FT result. Five wins across their last six SA road trips (W5, L1) – accounting for 48.39% of their away points this term – shows Atalanta’s recent upswing in fortunes, and has greatly increased their prospects of Champions League football next season. Crucially, a 1-0 lead could augment their chances as the ‘Bergamaschi’ have a near-perfect record when scoring first in away league games (W8, D1).

Atalanta’s overall form is equally impressive with only one loss across the last ten SA games (W9, L1). Five of those nine wins came after a level HT score (4 x 0-0), with Atalanta coming on strong late and scoring a third of their goals during that sequence (8/24) in the 70th minute or beyond.

Players to watch: Borja Mayoral’s seven SA goals this calendar year is more than twice any other Roma player; four of those were match openers. Conversely, Luis Muriel was Atalanta’s last scorer in each of his last five scoring SA away games.

Recent Stats:

  • AS Roma’s form in last 5 matches: LDWWD.
  • Atalanta’s form in last 5 matches: WWWWL

PREDICTION: BTTS